Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth set to slow in Q4 EM exports look to have grown strongly in Q3, helped by a rise in commodity prices. However, this is unlikely to herald a return to the rapid rates of export growth seen at the beginning of 2017... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will exports continue to impress? Export values rose the most since 2013 in August but the recent acceleration largely reflects a pick-up in export prices that is unlikely to last. While business surveys suggest that export volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Seasonal factors helped to boost year-on-year trade growth last month. But there are also hints of a real pick-up in domestic demand, perhaps due to efforts to shore up activity ahead of the Party... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: improved current account reflects weak growth The marked improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position over the past year has eased fears that the riyal will be devalued. However, a large chunk of the improvement has been due to weaker... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Aug.) The deluge of official data for August provided some reassurances that the economy has not lost pace in the third quarter and suggested that growth could even nudge up a touch. However, it also showed... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Aug.) The unexpected softness of French industrial production in August suggests that industry weighed on France’s GDP growth in the third quarter and contrasted with the robust Italian data. Meanwhile... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Retail weakness a worry, but not a disaster The recent slump in retail sales in Australia suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth that we have been warning about is underway. But it’s not a disaster for the economy as an associated... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Aug.) The net result of the retail sales and international trade data for August isn’t a disaster for the overall economy. But the weakness in retail sales supports our long-held view that a slowdown in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2.) The most interesting element of the National Accounts was the sweeping revisions to the data, including the implementation of the ONS’ annual methodological overhaul, which suggests households’... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
