Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jul.) Today’s flurry of activity data suggests that external-facing sectors are still providing little offset to the consumer slowdown. But there are some signs that net trade could provide more support in... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Asian exports continue to grow strongly? Exports from Emerging Asia have rebounded strongly over the past year. Despite the protectionist threat from the US, exports should continue to expand at a decent pace. This in turn, should provide an... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Export growth slowed by more than anticipated last month. Unfavourable base effects appear largely to blame. Nonetheless, outbound shipments remain softer than in Q2. Inbound shipments have held up... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (Jul.) Revised data show that GDP growth last quarter wasn’t quite as strong as initially reported, and the early indications point to a slowdown in Q3. But the bigger picture is that the economy is... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Jul.) July’s weak German industrial production and French trade data add to signs that euro-zone GDP growth will slow in Q3. But we expect the slowdown to be modest, so while the ECB is unlikely to announce... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) Despite the recent improvement in global trade activity, merchandise export volumes fell for the second consecutive month in July, hinting at a slower pace of overall economic growth in the third... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: No need to worry about the weak peso Subdued inflation and a relatively low level of foreign currency debt mean the weakness of the Philippine peso, which has recently been hitting multi-year lows against the US dollar, is not a major... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Time to give up on a boost from trade? Almost two years on from the start of sterling’s Brexit-related slide, the effects on net trade have been disappointing. Since the pound’s fall, net trade has actually detracted from growth as opposed... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade momentum still strong, despite Trump The latest esimates of world trade volumes reinforce the impression that global trade has coninued to expand rapidly in recent months. What’s more, the most timely indicators of freight traffic and... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Qatar crisis reaches an impasse The diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers seems to be in deadlock. Saudi Arabia and its allies revised their demands in July to something that appeared to be more palatable for Doha, but... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
