Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from markets after Trump & Xi meet There’s an air of optimism in markets about the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, where trade will be top of the agenda. An agreement between the two leaders might... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the tariffs so far The trade war has so far resulted in a much sharper slowdown in China’s imports from the US than its exports to the US. But exports will weaken soon unless existing tariffs are rolled back. 28th November 2018 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian markets hold up despite oil fall, Ukraine spat Russian financial markets have tumbled following the naval dispute with Ukraine, but the big picture is that local asset prices have held up well this month given the backdrop of falling oil prices... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the fall in oil prices means for EMs The recent drop in oil prices will help Turkey’s balance of payments adjustment and should boost the terms of trade and growth in large EM oil importers including South Africa and India. The obvious... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Further weakness on the horizon Having rounded off Q3 on a disappointing note, we think that world trade volumes will lose more momentum in the coming year or so as global demand weakens due to slowdowns in the US and China. A... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade truce wouldn’t avert further fall in RMB, equities Expectations are low that Presidents Xi and Trump will resolve their differences at the G20 summit, but a temporary truce that puts on hold the planned US tariff hike in January is possible. In this... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
