Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (May) Today’s flurry of activity data casts some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in GDP growth in Q2 and adds to the likelihood that rates will stay on hold at the next MPC meeting in August... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How important is the EU-Japan trade deal? The EU-Japan trade deal is unlikely to have a major impact on euro-zone GDP growth. In the context of US President Trump’s protectionist leanings and the UK’s impending exit from the EU, the deal is a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump unifying the G20 in favour of free trade Few observers will be expecting any policy breakthroughs at the G20 leaders’ summit in Hamburg this weekend, given the US administration’s scepticism about multilateral cooperation. But for now it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.) Despite the small narrowing of the trade deficit, from $47.6bn in April to $46.5bn in May, net trade still looks to have been a small drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the non... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Despite a big one-time jump in gold exports, the 2.0% m/m increase in export volumes in May, following fairly strong upward revised gains in the previous two months, builds an even stronger case than... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack GDP growth still looks to have accelerated in Q2 The incoming economic data appeared to take a bit of a turn for the worse over the past month, with the headline balances of all three Markit/CIPS PMIs falling in June. What’s more, consumer... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The trade surplus bounced back in May as coal exports returned to more normal levels following a sharp fall in April as a result of disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie. As such, at this stage it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update EU trade deal could boost productivity somewhat The impact of the proposed tariff cuts in the EU/Japan free trade agreement should not be overstated. But the deal will also reduce non-tariff barriers and barriers to foreign direct investment which... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies long-term challenges A rise in domestic coal production this year has led some to suggest that the government could yet achieve its goal of ending its reliance on imports within the next three years. But the sector... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) While Q1’s National Accounts confirmed that quarterly GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of 2017, there are signs that growth has re-accelerated. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian financial crisis twenty years on There are more differences than similarities between the situation now and the position many Asian countries found themselves in on the eve of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago. But there is no... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Growth to remain subdued in Australia While GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter was weaker than most had anticipated, this was partly the result of temporary factors that will fade. Nonetheless, while the... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
