China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Net capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged in June as greater inflows from foreign investors helped to offset increased outflows due to Chinese investment overseas, including in Belt &... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Meteoric rise in the dollar will soon run out of fizz The recent rise in the Australian dollar to a two-and-a-half year high of just under US$0.80 has been meteoric. But while the dollar may orbit around that level for a bit, we don't think it will be... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jun.) Export volumes probably fell slightly in Q2 while import volumes rose sharply so net trade turned into a drag on GDP growth. However, strong gains in industrial production still point to another solid... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Trade and investment to pick up the baton Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela vote changes little, balance of payments strains intensify Yesterday’s referendum organised by Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly delivered a resounding defeat to the government, but the vote was unofficial and changes little in practice... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position remains comfortable India’s trade deficit retreated in June from a 30-month high in May. With imports of key commodities such as oil and gold likely to stay in check, the overall trade deficit should remain at a... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Informal economies pose statistical challenges A new IMF paper highlights the large role the informal sector plays in African economies. It casts further doubt on official growth figures, and suggests that debt-to-GDP figures are painting a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese trade ended Q2 on a positive note but headwinds remain. In particular, while the slowdown in import growth appears to have eased recently, policy tightening means that the current resilience... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
