China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier external risks still a big concern A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Likely to lose momentum Although world trade growth has ticked up in recent months, we think that it will slow sharply in the coming year or so as global demand weakens. For now, it looks like tariffs under consideration... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth slowed in Q3 After a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q3, from 3.5% y/y to around 2.8% y/y. In Russia and Poland, this slowdown has been relatively gradual and driven by weakness in... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for China and India show gold imports tumbled in September and higher gold prices in October could mean that imports remain weak, despite the Indian wedding season. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in the Colombian peso ahead The Colombian peso has fallen by more than other Latin American currencies since August, and we expect a further underperformance over the next two years as oil prices fall, balance sheet... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg to remain intact The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, appears to have triggered a spike in capital outflows, putting pressure on the riyal. But we think it’s highly unlikely that the Saudi... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Net exports probably remained a drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. It now looks likely that economic activity came to a standstill in Q3. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
