China settling in for long haul on trade

Both sides in the US-China trade dispute have struck a more conciliatory tone in recent days. The White House has proposed renewed high-level talks. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are rowing back previous threats against US firms operating in China. Despite this, we doubt that China’s leaders truly believe a lasting truce is imminent. Instead, we think their more measured negotiating stance reflects a calculation that, in the event of a protracted conflict with the US, China must tread carefully in order to convince the rest of the world that it is a victim and not a perpetrator.