Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What might a “soft” Brexit look like? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawks in Hungary, Erdogan’s enhanced economic powers Hawkish comments from Hungary’s MPC this week support our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more than is priced into markets. Meanwhile, emergency economic powers granted to Turkey’s... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to remain weak, Philippines’ budget impasse The latest export data for Asia paint a glum picture, with December figures showing exports fell in y/y terms in China, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and India. With global growth likely to slow... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: why trade liberalisation would help Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro seems to be pushing one of his campaign pledges to liberalise trade and, if successful, history suggests that this might plausibly add as much as 0.75%-pts to... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downside risks are mounting The euro-zone has shifted down a gear but has not (yet) gone into reverse. Italy probably experienced a technical recession last year and Germany only narrowly avoided one. More importantly, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 10-month low in December and, with oil prices likely to fall further, we think the shortfall will shrink a little more over the coming months. In turn... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Flirting with zero Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has been flirting with zero since the start of the year. Not so long ago, it was climbing towards the 0.2% ceiling of the “tolerance band” managed by the Bank of... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth dropped more than anticipated in December as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Monthly Estimate (Nov.) The easing in GDP growth in the three months to November leaves growth only a little below the rates seen before the temporary factors of the World Cup and the unusually hot weather boosted it in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
