India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Jan.) Korean exports remained elevated at the start of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters, Korea’s external sector is still set for another decent performance in 2021. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2020) While export values failed to reach pre-virus levels again in December they should remain fairly strong at the start of the year, with net trade set to provide another boost to growth in Q1. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update Surge in shipping costs adds to near-term price pressure The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of... 19th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to widen further The widening in India’s goods trade deficit to an 18-month high in December still has further to run, particularly as a recovery in both domestic demand and global oil prices pushes import values... 18th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) Exports continued to do well last month, as renewed lockdowns abroad ensured the shift in consumption from services to goods persisted in many of China’s trading partners. Meanwhile, a pick-up in... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the... 11th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Vaccines to hasten recovery despite third virus wave Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines... 11th January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jan.) Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
