Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Nov.) Export growth slowed last month but this reflects unflattering base effects and softer global growth rather than US tariffs. A bigger concern is the sharp drop in import growth which, coupled with... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil price drop to strengthen current account position India’s current account deficit widened in Q3 but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices having dropped sharply since then, the deficit will remain... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war on hold? Inflation falls in Thailand The cease fire struck almost a week ago between China and the US has lifted hopes that a damaging trade war between the two countries will be averted. But even if the truce beaks down, we don’t think... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff Man or dealmaker? The arrest of Huawei’s CFO and recent Trump tweets boasting that he is “Tariff Man” have sparked concerns about the durability of the US-China trade truce. But there are still some grounds for... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Employment (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in October, from $54.6bn, was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The unexpectedly large widening of the trade deficit in October is a sign of things to come, as continued falls in energy prices in November will have pushed export values down further. The planned... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q3, of 3.5% of GDP, adds to the reasons to think that the Reserve Bank will tighten monetary policy a little further in the next few... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: external position improving but growth to slow The collapse in the rupee and an aggressive tightening of monetary policy is leading to a welcome fall in Pakistan’s external imbalances. However, with most of the adjustment taking place through a... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
