US Economics Update State & local budget hit not as bad as feared The relative resilience of state & local government tax revenues during the pandemic means that the overall budget shortfalls facing those governments are likely to be smaller than many had feared... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Dec.) Korean exports were buoyant in the first ten days of December, with no sign that renewed waves of the virus are weighing on external demand. We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months. 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Tightening fiscal policy soon would be fiscal folly At some point, there may need to be a fiscal squeeze to pay for any lasting increase in spending caused by the COVID-19 crisis and increases in age-related spending. But the biggest danger is that... 8th December 2020 · 18 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports to remain resilient China’s commodity import volumes should hold up well in the coming months in part because ongoing fiscal support should continue to boost domestic demand. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Exports jumped last month largely due to a surge in consumer goods exports as renewed COVID-19 flare-ups kept consumption in many of China’s trading partners skewed towards goods rather than services... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Oct.) The trade balance widened in October but the widening was partly driven by price effects so we estimate that net exports made little contribution to GDP growth in Q4. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Nov.) Korean export growth continued to gather momentum in November and is set to remain strong in the months ahead, buoyed by foreign demand for electronics. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade over 90% of way back to pre-virus level While world GDP was probably still about 3% short of its end-2019 level at the end of Q3, world trade had recovered to 1.5% below its pre-virus peak. As long as industry remains relatively unscathed... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
