Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Exports rose in November and the recent improvement in the business surveys bodes well for growth in the coming months, but the lockdowns suggest that GDP will still edge down in the first quarter. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening of the trade deficit in November came as import growth continued to outpace export growth and means net trade will be a significant drag on fourth quarter GDP growth. Those additional... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Current account to return to deficit in 2021 India’s current account is likely to swing from an unprecedented surplus in 2020 back into deficit in 2021 as domestic demand rebounds and oil prices continue to recover. But when it does return, the... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data suggest that regional industry and exports saw another sharp improvement at the end of the year. While some of this strength may fade in the coming quarters... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The unusual resilience of trade and what lies in store The relative resilience of real global merchandise trade during the pandemic has reflected several factors, most importantly robust goods spending in advanced economies. Merchandise trade flows are... 23rd December 2020 · 18 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s surge in borrowing is unlikely to be reversed much over the next few months as the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions keep many businesses closed. This will only increase talk of how to pay for... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Dec.) Korean exports remain remarkably strong, despite renewed waves of the virus at home and abroad, and we expect this to continue over the coming months. 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to widen further India’s goods trade deficit widened again in November and is set to reach its pre-pandemic levels over the coming months, especially given recent positive developments on a COVID-19 vaccine. But we... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Nov. 2020) While export values edged down again in November, they should rise above pre-virus levels. That said, due to the weakness in services exports, overall exports won’t return to pre-virus levels until... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
