Asia Economics Weekly Poor outlook for Korea, investment surges in Vietnam With President Moon-Jae-in doubling down on his labour market policies, job growth in Korea is likely to remain weak. We think the economy this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2009. Meanwhile... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the euro-zone We are revising our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone and now expect GDP to increase by only 1% this year and a bit less in 2020. Core inflation is also likely to be around 1% this year... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Powell and Mnuchin Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even if President Donald Trump actually had the power to do so, would do little in practical terms to change the future course of monetary policy. Arguably the bigger... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The further widening of the trade deficit in November mainly reflected a sharp drop in export values due to the recent slump in oil prices. Nevertheless, non-energy export volumes also fared poorly... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC eases policy, trade talks back in focus In keeping with its usual practice of making policy moves late on Fridays, the PBOC today announced a 100bp cut to the required reserve ratio aimed at supporting the economy and managing liquidity... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) The slump in export values in November suggests that growth in export volumes will continue to fall short of growth in import volumes in the fourth quarter. And the recent weakening in external demand... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines: current account deficit hits record in Q3 One of the key risks to the Philippines over the coming year is a further widening of the current account deficit. Data released earlier in the week showed the deficit widened to 3.0% of GDP in the... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What ‘serious consequences’ could China mean? If the emerging diplomatic spat with China escalates further, there are a number of measures that China could use to inflict economic damage on Canada. But given that Canada’s trade exposures to China... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed a touch in November and, with oil prices likely to stay lower, we think that the deficit will shrink further over the coming months. 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade Concessions, Reform and Opening Up 2.0? China resumed purchases of US soybeans this week and pledged to cut auto tariffs. But to clinch a lasting trade deal, it will need to convince the US that it is moving ahead with long-promised... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
