Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) The renewed widening of the trade deficit in January suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and we think that export growth will remain sluggish this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for panic India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in January, but with oil prices likely to fall over the coming months, we think the shortfall will narrow again before long. In turn, that should help to keep... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil by rail exports plummet, USMCA hurdles mount Alberta’s oil production cuts have successfully reduced the Canadian oil price discount compared with US benchmarks, but their success has produced some unintended negative consequences. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth rapidly losing momentum The latest figures show that EM export sectors faltered at the end of 2018. Chinese trade numbers for January were surprisingly upbeat, but seasonal effects are probably distorting the real trend. We... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak growth in Singapore to prompt policy loosening The weak Q4 GDP figures for Singapore that were released earlier today reaffirm our view that monetary and fiscal policy will be loosened this year. Meanwhile, the widening of Indonesia’s trade and... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The January trade data were much stronger than anticipated but seasonal volatility caused by annual shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year make it difficult to get a good grip on underlying trends... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Balance of payments risks easing Kenya’s current account deficit remains a vulnerability, but we don’t think that it poses a threat to the economy this year. In fact, we think that the deficit will narrow further in 2019 as oil... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit to $49.3bn in November, from $55.7bn, suggests that trade made a small positive contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but only because imports... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) Household spending appears to easing and will probably continue to do so as the outlook deteriorates in 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
