China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Stronger-than-anticipated exports hint at an uptick in foreign demand but disappointing imports suggest that domestic demand may not be holding up as well as hoped. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly World Bank too optimistic, remittance crown retained The World Bank released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Bank is... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Breaking down the slowdown in world trade A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Breaking down the slowdown in world trade A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Swiss pivot towards Asia reduces reliance on euro-zone The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Feb.) The strong 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales in February suggests that consumption growth may not have declined further in Q1, but we think the housing downturn will mean growth remains subdued in 2019... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) PMIs rose across much of Emerging Asia last month. But it’s too soon to call a turning point. The PMIs for the region’s biggest manufacturing sectors still point to a contraction in output, while... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Current account deficit to remain in check India’s current account deficit widened at the end of 2018 but this shouldn’t reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices likely to fall, the deficit will remain at a comfortable... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update China rebound won’t get Germany back on track Weaker Chinese demand can explain only a fraction of the slowdown in German GDP growth over the past year: softer demand in other export markets and in the euro-zone are more important factors... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
