Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May) Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump tariffs pose a growing threat to the outlook President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of tariffs on Mexican imports could be challenged by Congress, but the possibility that both Mexican and Chinese imports might be subject to a blanket 25%... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Tentative signs of stabilisation in world trade World trade volumes contracted again in Q1. But just as trade tensions between the US and China are ratcheting up again, there are a few signs that the slowdown in world trade may be bottoming out. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the worst over for China? The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions may exacerbate retail sales slump Retail sales growth slowed sharply in April, to its slowest pace since the SARS outbreak in 2003. While part of the weakness can be explained by a drop in fuel prices, the slowdown was not limited to... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) While the trade deficit narrowed in April as exports have started to rebound, we think that the slump in import volumes in the first quarter will reverse before long. The upshot is that we expect net... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Next round of tariffs to have a more significant impact The latest escalation in trade tensions could become a bigger drag on the US economy than previous rounds of tariffs. A 25% tariff on all imports from China would be equivalent to a tax worth 0.6% of... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax hike delay & trade war woes The government downgraded its assessment of economic conditions this week, prompting renewed speculation that the sales tax hike scheduled for 1 st October will be delayed yet again. However, with the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
