Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021) The record trade surplus in August came despite the plunge in iron ore prices in August. The upshot is that net trade should provide a boost to GDP growth in Q3 as domestic demand weakens. 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Sep.) Korean export values remained close to an all-time high in September and look to have provided a decent boost to growth over the quarter as a whole. 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Headwinds facing metals exporters It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s debt problem: muddling through Ghana’s government is likely to slip behind on its fiscal consolidation plans in the coming years and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will probably continue to rise. While we think that the authorities... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st - 20th Sep.) Korean export values are set to have another strong month in September. Large backlogs of orders are likely to keep exporters busy for many months to come. 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does deglobalisation mean for Japan? There are good reasons to think that the natural stalling in globalisation underway won’t do much damage to Japanese manufacturers. And while an abrupt severing of supply chains between China on the... 21st September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Aug. 2021) Today’s trade figures suggest that export volumes kept rising and we think that Japan’s focus on cars and machinery means that they will hold up better than in other Asian economies. 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
