Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in April but, given its very low exposure to a ratcheting up of trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to fall, we... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PBOC and Fed policy loosening won’t hinge on tariffs President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Implications of the escalating trade war The impact of the renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and China on Japan’s economy should be small even allowing for second-round effects on financial markets and confidence. A bigger... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons for China’s modest retaliation We think the small scale of China’s planned tariff hikes reflects three factors – a desire not to escalate tensions, the limited scope for further tariffs and China’s ability to use other tools to... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of US auto tariffs limited to a few countries With the twists and turns in the US-China trade talks grabbing most of the headlines, the looming deadline for the decision on US auto tariffs as part of the Section 232 investigation has received... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a threat are US tariffs to the EU? The US is stepping up the pressure on China to agree a trade deal, and a deadline to decide whether to raise tariffs on all auto imports is looming. On their own, those tariffs would do little damage... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports to stay weak, regardless of trade war The rise in the US tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China that came into force today is only likely to have a small impact on China’s economy, let alone the rest of the emerging world. But... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
