Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) Following March’s sharp fall, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed further in April. Given the softening of the export orders indices since the start of the year, we think that net... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will narrow again soon India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in May but given its very low exposure to an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to stay... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters left Kawhi-ing in face of global weakness Any boost to spending from the Raptors’ NBA finals victory won’t make up for weakness elsewhere, with Export Development Canada reporting this week that its semi-annual Trade Confidence Index has... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2019) The recent escalation of the US-China trade war appears to have resulted in net capital outflows from EMs in May – the first time that has happened since January. With the trade war likely to... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ trade war focus risks missing bigger picture Investors seem as pessimistic about the US-China trade war now as they have ever been. Indeed, it would probably come as little surprise to markets if the two sides imposed tariffs on virtually all... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s May trade data China’s commodity import volumes were subdued last month, which is consistent with our view of soft Chinese domestic demand and downward pressure on commodity prices. Moreover, while there was no... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long. 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade tensions to weigh on growth April’s trade data painted a positive picture of the manufacturing sector, but the further fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the outlook for exporters is bleak. Conditions could... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Chances of lasting trade deal recede Uncompromising messages from Beijing this week suggest that China’s leaders have concluded that there in no prospect of a resolution to the trade war any time soon. Limits on China’s rare earth... 7th June 2019 · 8 mins read
