Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that EMs received positive (albeit small) net capital inflows in April. But fresh currency stress in Argentina and Turkey as well as concerns about renewed trade tensions suggest... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Export growth last month was disappointing, with Trump’s latest tariff threats adding to the downside risks ahead. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices helped April’s import values beat expectations... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another cut likely in Malaysia before year-end With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Four implications of the re-escalation in trade tensions President Trump has threatened an imminent expansion of tariffs against China. We expect this to result in stronger headwinds to growth, more policy easing, a weaker renminbi and a stock market rout. 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the worst now over for Korean exporters? The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade volumes set to contract again in Q1 After a partial rebound at the start of the year, world trade volumes fell again in February – the fourth drop in six months. They look to have recovered a bit in March, and export orders in parts of... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
