Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea-Japan spat, Vietnam in the spotlight again The restrictions that Japan has announced on the sale of certain technology products to Korea could, if fully implemented, have a significant effect on Korea’s economy. However, past experience... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (May) Canadian exporters are doing well given the evidence of a marked deterioration in the global backdrop but, with the domestic and global manufacturing surveys deteriorating further in June, it is hard... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in May, from $51.2bn, suggests that net trade was a slightly bigger drag on second-quarter GDP growth than we had previously anticipated, with the... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The record trade surplus in May was supported by the recent surge in iron ore prices so will not completely flow through to stronger net exports in Q2. Even so, we expect net trade to continue to make... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, while significant policy loosening could cause imports to pick up over the coming quarters, we think that oil prices will remain low. This should... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (June) Very weak trade data for Korea and the fall in the manufacturing PMIs in June suggest that economic conditions deteriorated at the end of last quarter. After a weak Q1, GDP growth looks unlikely to... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
