Canada Chart Pack Export prospects further deteriorate The decline in the global manufacturing PMI to a two-year low in January suggests that prospects for Canadian exporters have deteriorated further. On past form, the global PMI is broadly consistent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A lot of good news on trade is now discounted Although there is no one definitive measure, most evidence suggests that as much as half of last year’s hit to global markets from worries about a US-China trade war has now unwound. Given the type of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another look at the slowdown in the euro-zone The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the second half of last year resulted from weaker exports and domestic demand, about half of which was due to problems in the car industry. But more recently... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil, soybeans and the trade war Brazil would be the biggest loser if China increases its imports of US soybeans as part of a trade deal. But the overall impact on Brazil’s export revenues and overall GDP growth would probably be... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Indonesia’s current account? Indonesia’s current account deficit should narrow this year, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates, as some analysts are now predicting. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone economies most exposed to global downturns Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export downturn worsens, Trump-Kim summit The weak Korean export figures for the first 20 days of February that were published earlier this week suggest that the region’s export downturn is intensifying. Looking ahead, the highlight of the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade talk optimism, RMB stability pledge Negotiators are making progress sketching out the specifics of a US-China trade deal, which suggests that Trump is likely to postpone the tariff hikes scheduled for next week. But the big picture is... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Exports now showing impact of tariffs The impact of US tariffs on China’s exports was initially masked by firms rushing out shipments of unaffected products in an attempt to beat any tariffs that came in later. That “front-running” seems... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The continued sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in February adds to the evidence that Japan’s economy is losing steam rapidly and suggests that GDP growth will remain weak for now. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
