Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April. 2021) With the notable exception of Turkey, the net capital outflows from emerging markets seen in February and March appear to have eased in recent weeks. Outflows may yet intensify over the coming... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Mar.) Export and import growth remained elevated in y/y terms last month, even as base effects turned slightly less favourable. In level terms, exports dropped back slightly but imports continued to rise... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Apr.) Korean export values dipped at the start of April, but we wouldn’t read too much into it – the 10-day data can be volatile and, in any case, exports remain well above their pre-crisis level. 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Aggregate world trade data mask Asia/RoW disparity While Asian goods exports have fared better than those from the rest of the world and especially those from advanced economies over the past year, this performance gap should narrow as economies... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales and the trade surplus declined in February but while we still expect consumption to rise in Q1, net trade may have been a drag on growth. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Suez blockage could add to pressure on shipping costs Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau suggested that world trade had shrugged off rising shipping costs up to January, with real goods trade rising by 2.5% m/m. The outlook is broadly positive. But if... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent EM export strength likely to fade EM exports have continued to rise sharply in recent months and this strength may persist for a little while yet. But the big tailwind to some of the Asian economies from strong demand for electronics... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM contagion risks from Turkey look limited The latest crisis engulfing Turkey will make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may cause... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Mar.) Korea’s external sector looks to have had its strongest quarter since 2018 and with semiconductor demand set to remain elevated in the short term, exports are likely to continue to provide an... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2021) While some of the weakness in exports last month was due to the later timing of the lunar new year, export growth may have been outpaced by import growth this quarter. That suggests that net trade may... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update External risks look manageable The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in February is likely to soon reverse as the recovery in domestic demand and oil prices pushes up imports. But while this means that India’s recent current... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eurobond-bonanza? SA’s current account in full swing African policymakers seem to be turning increasingly to international bond markets to finance budget deficits this year, which could add to existing debt vulnerabilities in Ghana and Nigeria... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
