Europe Economics Update Dutch current account surplus to remain high In our view, the Netherlands’ huge current account surplus, at around 10% of GDP last year, is unlikely to fall much anytime soon. Household saving will stay high, the government budget will remain in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports ringing alarm bells Most recent signs point to a gradual deceleration in China’s economy but the import data are a key exception, showing an abrupt contraction in November and December. While there appear to be several... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Recent weakness a sign of things to come After ending 2018 on a very weak note, world trade growth is likely to slow this year as the global economy loses momentum. A slowdown in world trade is highly likely regardless of whether the US and... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exports slump as tech sector cools A shocking set of export figures this week may have been worsened by specific troubles in the tech sector. But a deterioration in the global environment is likely to be an increasing headwind for the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind Tunisia’s large current account deficit? Tunisia’s large current account deficit is the result of struggles in the tourism sector as well as an overvalued exchange rate and overly loose fiscal policy. Implementing austerity looks to be an... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) The slump in export volumes in December probably overstated the weakness in external demand. Even so, we expect export growth to slow this year. 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs now less exposed to a China slowdown? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro puts trade ahead of fiscal reform at Davos Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s headline speech in Davos today suggests that opening up the economy to international trade will be a major priority, something that would boost the economy’s long... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
