Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2025) The modest rebound in the ISM headline index to 49.0 in June, from 48.5, should temper concerns of a factory sector collapse driven by tariffs and lingering trade uncertainty. While the hit to... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued. With worries about growth having taken precedence over those about inflation, we think most central banks in the region will continue to... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q2 25) The Q2 Tankan survey showed that the economy is holding up well despite trade tensions, which supports our view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year. 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2025 Final) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy. 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (June 2025) The Caixin services PMI released today adds to evidence that growth in the sector slowed in June. But the pickup in manufacturing more than offset this drag, pointing to a rebound in overall activity... 30th June 2025 (Updated 3rd July 2025) · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: High services inflation not a big concern The CPI data showed the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by an average of 0.2% m/m in May, which was lower than in the previous month but still a bit too strong... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: US-Mexico trade, Argentina’s rebalancing Timely trade figures out of Mexico this week show that, even though its producers appear to be struggling to make goods USMCA compliant, exports held up reasonably well last month. And leading... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Mixed messaging on India-US trade deal prospects President Trump's talking up of the prospects of a "very big" trade deal between India and the US this week are at odds with recent reports which suggest that India's politically sensitive... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (June 25) China’s economy slowed in May, with US tariff starting to take a toll on exports. And while consumer spending has picked up recently, that’s largely been driven by temporary subsidies from the... 27th June 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in June was partly due to a rise in core goods prices, but the early impact of the tariffs has been unexpectedly muted. Meanwhile, the contraction in real consumer spending... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr. 2025) The worse-than-expected 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in April and equivalent sized estimated fall in May suggests that growth was flat at best in the second quarter, with a clear risk of a contraction... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
