China Economics Weekly Ceding developing country perks is a geopolitical play China's decision this week to forgo its developing country benefits at the WTO won't have significant economic implications, not least because the WTO has little power these days to compel members to... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturers starting to shift production to US Falling US-bound exports are a headwind to economic activity in Japan. But as long as firms are able to keep serving US customers via their US subsidiaries, the impact on corporate profits, investment... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025) The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Soft growth ahead, region to weather tariff threat Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being... 25th September 2025 · 25 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth weak but stable China’s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest, but growth has held steady this year despite US tariffs. While both exports and fiscal spending will continue to support the economy over... 24th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus Crowding out: Assessing the fiscal risks to growth Big budget deficits are fuelling fears about fiscal sustainability, but the potential negative effects on growth are receiving less attention. While Germany is embarking on a major fiscal expansion... 24th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (September 2025) The fall in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September contrasts with the big improvement in the Composite PMI and casts some doubt over hopes that the German economy might be finally... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI will reignite the easing cycle The hit to GDP growth from punitive US tariffs, along with a benign inflation outlook, sets the stage for the RBI to resume its easing cycle at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 1st... 24th September 2025 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep. 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the downside risks around economic activity may be growing a bit and the upside risks to inflation may be fading, albeit only slowly. But with inflation likely to... 23rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy grew fairly slowly again in Q3 and that price pressures eased. 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Are Indian households becoming overleveraged? Rising household debt in India should not be a major concern for now given the backdrop of falling interest rates. But it is a risk that will require close monitoring once the easing cycle turns... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
