Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2025) The ESI for June suggests that US tariffs may be starting to drag on euro-zone activity and that the economy remains weak. Meanwhile, Middle-east tensions do not appear to have raised perceived... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will cut rates to 2.85% by early-2026 There are growing signs that Australia's economic recovery is struggling for momentum. Moreover, both CPI data and business surveys suggest that this weakness in activity is translating into softer... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook US Outlook: Trump policy mix still mildly stagflationary We expect tariffs to have only a modest impact on both real economic growth and price inflation. Admittedly, we do see annualised GDP growth slowing to around 1.5% in the second half of this year, but... 26th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Growth concerns to prompt more rate cuts EM exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, but the growth outlook over the second half of the year looks more challenging. We expect a slowdown in most EMs and our forecasts... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2025) The surge in durable goods orders in May was mostly driven by the Qatar Airways-Boeing deal announced during President Trump’s visit, but the small rise in core orders shows there were signs of... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jun. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Tepid growth for many as tariff threat looms We expect GDP growth across most of Asia to soften in 2025, with many countries likely to record below-consensus growth. The risk of escalating trade tensions remains a key concern, particularly for... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price... 26th June 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up... 25th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe afford NATO targets? If it is implemented in full and funded through borrowing, the target for NATO members to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could push debt burdens up by 10% of GDP or more over the next... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update “One Canada” boost won’t come overnight The One Canadian Economy Act (Bill C-5) is a positive step towards reducing dependency on the US in the long run. But it will do little to offset the blow to trade from tariffs given that even fast... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
