Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut? With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices will continue to climb High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom... 3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: One year on – Is the government boosting growth? The government has implemented some good policies in its first year, but it has undermined the resulting one-off boost to real GDP in the coming years with a few missteps. And the possible permanent... 3rd July 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Jun. ’25) June’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a strong outturn for the Gulf’s non-oil sectors despite the coinciding escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. Tensions have since eased, but there may be a... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy still struggling, more easing likely The latest batch of monthly activity and inflation data for Korea support the case for further monetary policy easing by the central bank. We are expecting another 50bps of cuts before the end of the... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2025) With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting. 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
