Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well so far, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided... 20th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But... 19th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June 2025) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.0%) and we expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. In contrast, most other analysts are... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in... 19th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2025) Although New Zealand’s recovery gained traction last quarter, there are signs that the upshift in momentum will prove short-lived. Accordingly, we still think there’s a strong case for the RBNZ to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy struggling at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that the weakness of South Africa’s economy in the first quarter of the year – in which GDP expanded by a measly 0.1% q/q – carried over into the start of Q2. Industry... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 25) While US-bound exports kept falling in May, Japan’s overall exports were little changed and we estimate that net exports will be only be a small drag on Q2 GDP growth 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2025) The modest decline in industrial production in May was driven by the volatile utilities sector; manufacturing and mining both increased, although admittedly only by a little. It is difficult to see a... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared... 17th June 2025 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2025) The US-China trade truce was not enough to prevent a broader loss of economic momentum last month. With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal support waning and structural headwinds persisting, growth is... 16th June 2025 · 2 mins read
