Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025) Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Budget already buffeting the economy? The recent poor performance of the housing market and the weakness in consumer and business sentiment probably has more to do with rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the stuttering jobs... 10th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The slump in German industrial production in August was partly due to temporary car plant closures for the summer holidays, which should prove temporary. But that wasn’t the whole story and previous... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Event UK Roundtable – What does the Budget mean for the economy, housing and financial markets? 12th November 2025, 9:00AM GMT Ahead of the Budget on 26 November, our economists discussed the potential impact of the Chancellor’s second Budget in a special in-person roundtable held on Wednesday 12 November.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand’s underperformance won’t last The prolonged underperformance of New Zealand’s economy has contributed to the Kiwi dollar being the worst-performing G10 currency last month, even as the Australian dollar was the best-performer... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fallout from France’s ongoing political deadlock The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two... 6th October 2025 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt... 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
