US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index has reversed the decline since April linked to the tariff disruptions, although it remains below the 50 mark and the accompanying comments from respondents suggest that... 1st October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI opens door to further policy easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.50% today but has left the door open for a resumption in the easing cycle over the coming months. We still expect the repo rate... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (September) The September PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained weak and we continue to expect manufacturing activity in the region to struggle in the near term. With growth set to soften and inflation... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 25) The latest Tankan survey confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and supports our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle this month. 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed’s next chapter 7th October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest US Economic Outlook makes the case for stronger growth than the consensus expects as an AI-driven investment boom boosts productivity and helps offsets the drag from tighte
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2025 Final & Blue Book Revisions) The small upward revisions to real GDP in recent years means that productivity growth wasn’t quite as weak as previously thought. The OBR will take these revisions into account ahead of the Budget on... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2025) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated this month, partly due to resilient exports. But with fiscal easing set to provide less of a prop over the coming months, we are sceptical that... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 25) While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
