US Data Response GDP (Q4) The more modest 4.0% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was mainly due to some temporary weakness in consumption, which was dragged down by the resurgence in coronavirus infections. With... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA shakeup, UAE banks, latest on COVID-19 The change of governor at the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) adds to the signs that the government will lean more heavily on SAMA to support its efforts to diversify investments and the Saudi economy... 28th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone supports our view that the economy will contract again in Q1. The survey also suggests that inflationary pressure... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Jan.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in January was a welcome surprise and shows that the manufacturing sector remains in rude health. That said, retail is struggling, and with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines saw another lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q4 and big improvements will be hard to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until the end of 2021. 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Dec. 2020) The small fall in retail sales in December suggests that consumer spending only weakened slightly before the declaration of a state of emergency. However, it’s still consistent with our view that... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weaker 0.2% gain in headline durable goods orders in December was mainly due to ongoing problems among aircraft manufacturers and a drop off in defence orders. The bigger story is the continued... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) Korea’s recovery lost a little steam last quarter as a third wave of infections weighed on private consumption, but with cases now on a downward trend, the recovery should regain momentum over the... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The fall in the headline Ifo Business Climate Indicator for January is consistent with our view that, having proved resilient in Q4, German’s economy will contract in Q1. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The tightening of the coronavirus restrictions in November helped boost retail sales, as consumers substituted spending on goods for spending on services. That means the retail sales data paint too... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s flash composite PMI is consistent with our view that the third lockdown, like the second, was much less damaging for the economy than the first lockdown in March/April 2020. But it suggests... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
