Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global... 12th January 2021 · 14 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The drop in India’s consumer price inflation in December strengthens our view that monetary policy will remain very loose for a long time to come, and could even be enough to trigger a policy rate cut... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Nov.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in mainland Norwegian GDP in November shows that activity was reasonably resilient to tighter virus-related restrictions and was well placed coming into 2021. While... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: cutting our forecasts on new restrictions The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The sharp drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in December suggests that the third wave was weighing heavily on consumer sentiment even before the declaration of a state of emergency in Greater Tokyo... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4) The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) showed that firms’ hiring and investment intentions are now back to pre-pandemic norms, which bodes well for the economic recovery this year. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the... 11th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Vaccines to hasten recovery despite third virus wave Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines... 11th January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jan.) Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Not the quiet first week back we were all hoping for Although we think that markets are still over-estimating the potential for additional large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, the Democrats’ unexpected victories in both Georgia Senate run-off... 8th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When will vaccines unlock the economy? The length of the third lockdown in England will largely be determined by how long it takes to vaccinate the most vulnerable people. As a result, the pace of vaccinations over the next few weeks will... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout, Poland’s policy shift, US data breach COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the region have started slowly over the past few weeks and prolonged virus restrictions mean that economies will remain weak for a few more months at least... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly In store for a bumpy start to 2021 The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
