Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 and while a second wave of infections will weigh on growth in Q4, we don’t think it will be long before the recovery is back on track. 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP under pressure to cut, vaccine boost to equities The weakness of the recovery in the Philippines means that the central bank (BSP) is likely to lower interest rates at next Thursday’s scheduled meeting. The consensus is for no cuts before the end of... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone industrial output was largely due to the reversal of temporary effects in Italy, rather than a result of the second wave of COVID-19. We expect industrial production... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) We now know that the record breaking fall in GDP of 19.8% q/q in Q2 was followed by a record breaking rise of 15.5% q/q in Q3. But meagre growth in September shows that the recovery was rapidly... 12th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine news boosts confidence in outlook While Japan’s stock market has largely shrugged off positive developments on the vaccine front, there’s little doubt that a vaccine would speed up the recovery of Japan’s services and export sectors... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Sep.) Machinery orders fell in September and we expect non-residential investment to have weakened last quarter and to be flat across Q4. Further ahead, we think business investment will be weak link in the... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Bihar election result boosts reform prospects The BJP’s relatively strong performance in the state election in Bihar suggests that goodwill for the ruling national party remains intact amid India’s largest recession in modern history. Bihar has... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Nov.) Korean exports remained buoyant in the first ten days of November and there are few signs that large second waves of the virus are weighing on demand for Korean exports. We expected continued strong... 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The further surge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in October suggests that Q4 could surprise to the upside. However, further ahead the recovery will slow as the economy gets closer to pre-virus... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The Philippines saw a lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q3 and improvements are likely to be harder to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until late next year. 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would a vaccine affect the economy? If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
