Japan Economics Update Benefits from RCEP set to be modest Given that Japan doesn’t have existing free trade agreements with either China or Korea, it is set to benefit more than other participants from the recently signed RCEP deal. However, tariffs will... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The acceleration in manufacturing output in October suggests that, after lagging the broader recovery over the past six months, the factory sector is now making up some lost ground. With inventory... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker than expected 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October is still broadly consistent with our forecast that consumption growth will slow to 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. But the... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Timely data add to evidence of Q4 contraction Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q3) This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy bounced back strongly over the summer. However, new restrictions both locally and in key trade partners mean that... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Investment recovery likely to lose steam The rebound in investment in India appears to have been stronger than anticipated over the past few months and we are revising up our estimates of Q3 GDP growth as a result. But the recovery faces... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The latest data suggest that the broad-based acceleration of China’s economy continued in October. Policy stimulus continued to boost investment and industrial output while growth in real retail sales... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP figures published today show that the worst is now over for Thailand’s economy, but its dependence on tourism means it is likely to experience one of the slowest recoveries in the region. 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q3 2020 Preliminary) Output rose sharply in the third quarter and should recover further this quarter provided the third wave of coronavirus infections doesn’t spiral out of control. 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mutation in mink; Swiss the first to blink The prospect of a vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, clouds have darkened over Q4 and things will get worse before they get... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers The UK is one of the economies that stands to benefit the most from COVID-19 vaccines. As it has suffered by more than its peers on the way down, there is more scope for its bounce to be bigger on the... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine impact, tech crackdown, renminbi The coming week’s retail sales data are likely to signal that consumer spending, the part of China’s post-lockdown recovery that has lagged the most, is back to health. China is a rare example of a... 13th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for September add to the evidence the recovery was strong over Q3, although prolonged weakness in the tourism sector and the recent sharp... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
