China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan and Vietnam: outperformance continues Continued trade tensions between the US and China are providing a significant boost to economic prospects in Taiwan and Vietnam. Having also successfully contained the virus without significant... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update New restrictions put the brakes on the recovery The new restrictions to contain COVID-19 won’t prevent some sectors from continuing to recover, but they will cause others to go backwards. And based on an assumption that restrictions are more likely... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease The Turkish lira has continued to weaken in recent weeks and, with the response by policymakers likely to fail to placate investors, we now expect the currency to fall to as low as 9.25/$ by the end... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch Loosening cycle is not over yet We agree with market and analyst expectations that the Reserve Bank’s new-look MPC will keep rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 1st October. But with inflation set to drop... 23rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ setting the stage for negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continued to set the stage for negative rates today and we think the OCR will be cut into negative territory early next year. 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Sep.) The September flash PMIs didn’t improve much further even as Japan’s second virus wave has abated. Nevertheless, the survey points to a continued pick-up in consumption, exports and industrial output. 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
