Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech COVID-19 surge, Turkey’s current account problems The Czech government this week announced a further tightening of containment measures in an effort to control the surge in COVID-19 cases which will cause economic activity to continue to soften. In... 16th October 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups China’s goods exports probably can’t keep growing at their incredibly-rapid recent rates for long, not least because infection flare-ups in Europe and the US will take some steam out of the recoveries... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems mount in Malaysia Malaysia’s economy has rebounded rapidly from the crisis. However, headwinds are growing. Having been on the verge of being eliminated, confirmed inflections have surged in recent days. Meanwhile, the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh fiscal support likely as capital spending weakens The fiscal support provided by Japan’s government had started to look small compared to other large economies but PM Suga this week hinted that more spending is forthcoming. While the government has... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thai protests a key risk to the recovery The renewed risk of domestic political unrest in Thailand following the declaration of a “severe” state of emergency could act as a further drag on the already beleaguered economy. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The recovery in euro-zone industrial output has slowed but is not going into reverse. The impact of the second COVID-19 wave should be much smaller than the first and will be felt most in the services... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight The COVID-19 crisis has led to a ballooning of current account surpluses across Emerging Asia that is putting upward pressure on currencies. The shift to bigger external surpluses could also land the... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Advanced), MAS Decision The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced GDP data showed that the economy rebounded well in Q3. However, with GDP still well below its pre-crisis level, the MAS... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold at 4.0% today, but it is too soon to call an end to the easing cycle. With the economy in need of further support, we think the central bank will resume... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for August add to the evidence that the recovery has remained strong, although the figures appear to have been flattered by a shift in the timing... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
