RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Pessimistic RBNZ set to be surprised The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to begin increasing rates next year. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is the slow vaccine rollout a cause for concern? Asia’s vaccine rollout has got off to a slow start. This is not a big concern in countries that have contained the virus and where social distancing is not a drag on growth such as Taiwan and China... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest rate hikes are a long way off The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting – in which interest rates were left unchanged – show that the MPC remains cautious on the inflation outlook but that it is also committed to... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Roadmap leaves economy on course to recover rapidly We think that the government’s roadmap for easing England’s current COVID-19 lockdown will direct the economy back to its pre-pandemic size by Q1 2022. With the Chancellor and the Bank of England... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Investor demand returning Office and industrial yields edged lower in Q4 as the recovery in Scandinavian investment took hold. However, the pandemic continued to weigh on occupiers, with retail rents declining further in most... 22nd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February suggests that the German economy is weathering the lockdown better than anticipated. It also points to some upside risk to our forecast that... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pandemic-driven staff shortages could lift wage growth Even though the unemployment rate is still as high as it was during the mining bust, job vacancies and the share of firms reporting staff shortages have surged. We suspect that this has been driven by... 22nd February 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in February suggests that the economy didn’t deteriorate further after the probable fall in GDP in January triggered by the current COVID-19... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February) February’s small increase in the Composite PMI left it still below 50 and consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP will probably edge down again in Q1. The survey also suggested that price... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown hit the economy harder than the second lockdown in November. Retailers may have to endure a few more months of... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns Short localised lockdowns are becoming increasingly common in New Zealand and Australia as governments seek to contain virus outbreaks. But the impact on consumption is typically short-lived and... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
