Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment already turning a corner The surge in capital goods shipments in October and solid profit data for Q3 suggest that capital spending is ending the year on a strong note. We’re revising up our forecast for business investment... 7th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The rise in the headline construction PMI in November showed that the industry continued to recover even as overall economic activity probably contracted again. But builders’ optimism that this will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking Daily cases have started creeping higher again at the national level driven by a renewed rise in infections in Tokyo and Osaka. We suspect that both cities will soon ask citizens to stay at home and... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2021 China’s rebound from the COVID-19 shock has been swifter and stronger than most anticipated. We think its economy will continue to surprise to the upside for a while, paving the way for PBOC rate... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
