Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec & Q4.) The media headlines have focused on the record-breaking 9.9% decline in annual GDP in 2020, but the rise in GDP in Q4, despite the COVID-19 lockdown in November and restrictions in December, is... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4. 2020) Malaysia’s economy shrank in Q4 due to a large second wave of the virus and is likely to have contracted much more sharply at the start of 2021. The economy should soon begin to recover again now that... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sanguine January, TOPIX hits a 30-year high Timely data for January suggest that economic activity has held up far better than during the previous state of emergency last spring. And with the government mulling lifting the state of emergency... 11th February 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Savings surge allows FTBs to upsize deposits The availability of high loan-to-value mortgages has dropped sharply, and the cost of those that are still available has rocketed. So it’s remarkable that the share of mortgage advances going to first... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the vaccine rollout Almost a month since the start of India’s vaccination drive, it appears highly unlikely that the government will meet its target of inoculating 300m people by August. For now, we maintain our... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Jan. 2021) The resilience of the Economy Watchers Survey in January suggests that the third wave is causing far less economic damage than the first did. That supports our non-consensus view that the economy will... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two upsides to our upbeat forecasts There are still plenty of downside risks to our upbeat economic forecasts, but the events of this week highlighted two upside risks. First, the rapid rollout of vaccines means COVID-19 restrictions... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Emergency extension, more flexible JGB yield target While the government this week extended the state of emergency by a month in virus hotspots, with daily infections falling sharply and the start of the vaccine rollout imminent there is light at the... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
