India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The mixed batch of manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for September suggest that the initial rebound in activity over the summer started to run out of steam at the end of Q3. The recovery is... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The jump in September’s manufacturing PMI reading to its highest in over eight years is a much-needed sign that the recovery still has some legs. But with India now a virus epicentre, containment... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The rebound in the Q3 Tankan fell short of expectations and suggests that the recovery could be protracted. And while the survey indicates that the labour market will soon turn the corner, firms’... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Aug.) The recent improvement in output in the core infrastructure industries came to an abrupt halt in August. With India now a virus epicentre, containment measures are likely to remain in place for a long... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Stonking current account surplus will prove fleeting If ever there were a sign of how extraordinary economic developments have been this year, India recorded a stonking current account surplus in Q2. This is unlikely to last long, as oil prices will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2) Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 7.0% y/y in Q2 on the back of the virus containment measures and oil production cuts. And even though containment measures have started to be lifted, the... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The latest PMIs show that economic activity continued to accelerate in September on the back of a broad-based improvement in both services and manufacturing. 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) Retail sales rebounded back to pre-virus levels in August as the second wave began to dissipate, and we expect consumer spending to recover further over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The further rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September suggests that the recovery continued this month, albeit at a slower pace. However, we suspect that the recent rise in virus... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam’s economy rebounded in the third quarter and should continue to perform strongly over the coming year. A surge in exports to the US, aggressive rate cuts by the central bank and the government... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
