UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The relatively small fall in November’s flash composite PMI suggests that the hit to GDP from the second lockdown will be much smaller than the first and that our expectation of an 8% m/m drop in GDP... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: No respite for rents just yet Data for Q3 confirmed that while some office and industrial markets in the region recorded quarterly rental falls, weakness was still unsurprisingly concentrated in the retail sector. Core-CEE retail... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Nov.) Buoyant foreign demand for electronics drove strong export growth over the first 20 days of November and this should remain the case over the coming months. 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, revised) The upward revision to Singapore’s Q3 GDP figures shows that the economy has rebounded strongly, and we expect the recovery to continue at a decent pace on the back of strong fiscal support and... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September was much better than expected, but sales appear to have stagnated in October and the prospect of restrictions being imposed on all non-essential... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to give economy a shot in the arm We see substantial upside risk to our forecasts for next year, thanks to the prospect of a mass vaccination programme. But the near-term outlook is still gloomy, with November's PMI scheduled for... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the decline in the composite PMI could be an early sign that the third wave is resulting in a renewed drop in activity, the survey still points to a further rebound in industrial output and... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much would a vaccine boost Spanish tourism? A widespread rollout of an effective vaccine next year should allow a fairly swift return to normality for Spain’s hard-hit tourism sector and would transform the short-term economic outlook. We... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
