Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) The slump in the core infrastructure industries index eased in September, and this suggests that overall industrial output contracted by 8% in Q3. That’s a slight upside risk to our GDP forecasts. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep.) The strong rise in industrial production in September is consistent with our view that Japan’s economy will rebound faster than most anticipate. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unchanged in... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 33.1% annualised rebound in GDP in the third quarter was unprecedented in size, but still left the economy 3.5% smaller than it was in the final quarter of last year. 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Retail sales were broadly unchanged in September, remaining a smidge below pre-virus levels in volumes terms. That’s consistent with our view that consumption rebounded strongly last quarter, although... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3, provisional) Korean GDP rebounded last quarter as exports bounced back strongly, and with the economic impact of the “second wave” fading and exports picking up further, the recovery is set to continue over the... 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Dovish MPC minutes suggest further easing likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting – in which policy was left unchanged – show that the MPC has turned more dovish on the inflation outlook and that it has reservations about the... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to rise much further The fact that last night’s US Presidential debate didn’t appear to reduce the chances of a Democratic clean sweep at the upcoming US election, and the optimistic comments on the fiscal negotiations by... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economies in need of continued policy support National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil The Cabinet Office’s monthly measure of consumption released this week showed a substantial upward revision for July and a rebound in August. That indicates that the second wave of infections acted as... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Oct.) The composite PMI only edged up marginally in October, consistent with our view that the recovery will slow in the fourth quarter. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
