Japan Economics Weekly Economy entered lockdown with strong momentum The pick-up in GDP in Q4 was stronger than most had anticipated. And while it still left output 2.9% below the peak reached ahead of 2019’s sales tax hike, other economic data released this week are... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021) The rebound in the composite PMI in February supports our view that the economy is coping with the second state of emergency better than most had anticipated. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in February but it remained very low. Unless vaccine programmes accelerate to allow restrictions to be lifted soon, a sustained pick up in confidence remains months... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected 0.9% m/m rise in industrial production in January, driven by a 1% rise in manufacturing output, means that production is still lagging behind the recovery in goods... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020) While some of the rise in exports in January was likely due to the timing of the lunar new year, they should have continued to rise faster than imports across this quarter, with net trade likely to... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Denmark GDP (Q4 2020) The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, Revised) Revised Q4 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy rebounded more strongly than first thought at the end of 2020. Buoyant global demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals and strong fiscal support... 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economic recovery slowed in the final quarter of last year, and the worsening prospects for the tourism industry mean we are cutting our GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 6.0% to 4.5%. 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The strong rise in GDP in Q4 left output just 0.5% below pre-virus levels. And while most economists expect a renewed contraction this quarter due to the second state of emergency, we think that... 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
