US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising rates A hold on Thursday 18th June looks nailed on and we expect interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year. But rate hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out. Either way, the... 11th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 26) The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Emergency Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB unlikely to raise interest rates very far A 25bp rate hike next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, looks nailed on and we suspect that will be followed by another in July. But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation... 4th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Softer data give BoC some breathing room The downside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth and limited passthrough of higher oil prices to core inflation so far gives the Bank of Canada scope to keep interest rates on hold again next week... 3rd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (April 2026) The fall in household spending in April will give the RBA pause for thought, raising risks to our view that it will deliver one final 25bp hike in Q3. 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike rates in July The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2026) The RBNZ narrowly voted to leave rates on hold today and it seems like a hike could come sooner than our current forecast of Q4. That said, with the output gap still deeply negative, the Bank doesn’t... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
