RBA Watch RBA still on course to cut rates by February The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity? ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and... 25th October 2024 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will hike once more in December The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another? The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024) The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2024) Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp, the ECB stuck to its guidance about data dependence and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. But the press release also acknowledged... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s... 16th October 2024 · 7 mins read
