Bank of Canada Watch Bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026 We think the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold again next week despite the soft data released since December’s meeting, given policymakers’ desire to gain more clarity over the future of... 22nd January 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) The Turkish central bank unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we are... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as political attacks ramp up The data released since the FOMC’s December meeting have reduced the potency of both the hawks’ warnings about inflation risks and the doves’ warnings about labour market risks. This reduces the... 21st January 2026 · 9 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) Recent falls in the rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting today. The decision will ease fears, for now at least, that BI... 21st January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB independence is not at risk The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly February may be too soon, but rate cuts to keep on coming Unless next week’s labour market and inflation data are unanimously weak, February may be too soon for another interest rate cut given the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt at its December meeting. But... 16th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will signal more rate hikes The Bank of Japan’s Board will revise up their GDP growth forecasts next week as downside risks from tariffs have abated. And while the government’s energy subsidies will result in lower forecasts for... 15th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel opted to reduce its policy rate by another 25bp to 4.00% today, and the tone of its communications suggests that its easing cycle has further to run. We now expect a further 50bp of... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Dec 9-10) The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since... 30th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2025) The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
