RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut rates by 50bp next week Although financial markets aren’t fully convinced, we believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower its policy rate by 50bp at its meeting ending on 8 th October. With the output gap deeply... 1st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025) While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.50%, at its meeting today and the communications were broadly unchanged, suggesting that easing will continue at the... 25th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a... 25th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold again today, at 3.50%, and in contrast to many analysts who still expect interest rates to be lowered further next year, we think that the risks... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI will reignite the easing cycle The hit to GDP growth from punitive US tariffs, along with a benign inflation outlook, sets the stage for the RBI to resume its easing cycle at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 1st... 24th September 2025 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged again today, at 6.50%, and we think that the easing cycle will remain on pause over the rest of this year. While we currently forecast... 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
