Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025) The Brazilian central bank’s hawkish statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate at 15.00% all but ends any hope of an interest rate cut before year-end. Our new base case is that the... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026 When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025) When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will wait until January before tightening again The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today and Governor Ueda indicated that the Bank wants to gather more information on the strength of pay hikes in next year’s spring wage negotiations... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Oct. 25) The Bank of Japan signaled continued concerns about the impact of higher US tariff when keeping policy settings unchanged today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the next rate hike will only... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts and ends QT, but further loosening not guaranteed The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected, with dissents in both directions, and Chair Jerome... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Oct) The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected. While Trump-appointee Stephen Miran again voted for a... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts but thinks it has done enough With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut widely anticipated, the key development today was the signal that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2025) With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut today widely anticipated, the key development was that it signalled that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Skipping a cut With CPI inflation almost double the 2.0% target and the Budget in a few weeks’ time, we think that a narrow majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest... 29th October 2025 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hiatus until Q3 2026 The RBA will leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% on 4th November. And with inflation proving stubborn, the Bank is likely to remain on hold until the second half of next year. That said, a prolonged... 29th October 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update The Treasury forces the Fed's hand on QT If the Fed does decide to call time on its quantitative tightening (QT) this week it will be responding to the Treasury’s efforts to rebuild its cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised this... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
