US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July 2025) The FOMC made only one major change to its policy statement this month, acknowledging that growth moderated in the first half of the year. While Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC holds but slower growth beginning to raise concern While the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting today, the communications showed policymakers placing greater emphasis on the downside risks to growth... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul 2025) The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting today as it awaits greater clarity over the country’s future trading terms with the US. The communications... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Why we think the easing cycle is over The further sharp drop in headline inflation in June has raised the prospect of another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 6th August. But given... 30th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB now likely to leave rates unchanged With the euro-zone economy holding up relatively well in the face of tariff uncertainty, inflation likely to stay close to the target and President Lagarde adopting a slightly more hawkish stance at... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we expect the pace... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch October rate hike looking increasingly likely The trade deal agreed upon between the US and Japan has removed a key downside risk and the Bank of Japan will probably present a more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook at next week's meeting... 24th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Trade deal negotiations give cause for BoC to wait The recent rebound in core inflation and improved timely activity indicators will prompt the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at 2.75% next week – not least given policymakers will also want to... 23rd July 2025 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Holding the (hawkish) line Despite calls within the FOMC for a rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, we expect the hawks to prevail – with tariff uncertainty still too elevated for the Fed to justify a policy shift, while the... 23rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (July 2025) Although the RBA judged that leaving rates on hold was the more prudent choice at its meeting earlier this month, it did signal that there was more easing in the pipeline. Our sense is that the Bank... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) & US-Indonesia Trade Deal Bank Indonesia (BI) resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate, to 5.25%, today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
