US Fed Watch Fed to stand pat With no prospect of the Fed adjusting policy next week, the focus of the FOMC meeting will be the new SEP forecasts. The “dots” are likely to cluster around one or two interest rate cuts this year... 5th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
RBI Watch Change in policy stance looks imminent The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Caution favours the hold The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of... 29th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May) Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (May 2024) The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, of more interest will be the tone of the central bank’s statement and Governor Rhee’s press... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a larger-than-expected 150bp hike to its policy rate, to 26.25%, at its meeting today, reinforcing Governor Cardoso’s recent comments that officials will “do... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
