Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates next year The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2024) 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank will hike its policy rate once more in July The Bank of Japan disappointed markets today by announcing that it will only present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at its July meeting. We think it will also deliver a final policy... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jun. 24) The Bank of Japan announced today that it will present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting in July and we think it will also deliver a final policy rate hike then... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation... 13th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to stick to hawkish tone Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy. 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed projects one cut this year, but notes inflation progress The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a... 11th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Window for policy tightening starting to close While there’s a chance that the Bank of Japan may reduce its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting, we think it will wait until its July meeting before making that announcement. We also expect the... 6th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada set to cut again in July Today’s interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada will be the first of many, and the dovish tone of the accompanying communications suggests another rate cut in July is nailed on. As Governor Tiff... 5th June 2024 · 3 mins read
