India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain... 4th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS likely to loosen policy later than most in Asia Singapore was an outlier within Asia in terms of how high inflation spiked and it still has higher core inflation than most other economies in the region. The core rate is likely to remain above... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly External position looking healthy, RBI to stand pat Data released this week show that India's current account deficit narrowed at the end of last year and, while it may widen over the coming months, we think it will remain well within the 2% of GDP... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeping up the inflation fight The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot creeping closer We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in... 27th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%) will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace of the... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more... 21st March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
