UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: surprise hike unlikely to be followed by further tightening Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still on track for a June rate cut Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end... 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ultra-loose policy ends but tightening cycle unlikely The Bank of Japan today called time on more than a decade of ultra-loose policy settings, but we don’t think it will lift its policy rate any further over the coming months. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August. 19th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Mar. 23) The Bank of Japan ended ultra-loose monetary policy today but we don’t think it will raise its policy rate any further. 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto tide should lift wage growth among small firms This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hikes since 1991 and we estimate that participating workers will receive a base pay hike of around 3.5%. While it’s mostly the large... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Better inflation data needed for June rate cut Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still... 13th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
