US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (October 28-29) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025) Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a second consecutive meeting but the accompanying communications remained dovish and we still think there’s scope for further... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India’s core inflation unlikely to rise much further Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025) The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) cut interest rates by another 25bp, to 7.25%, today but the shift in its forward guidance suggests policymakers are now more cautious about committing to further rate... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update A pause in BoE interest rate cuts, not the end The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain unchanged next month. That said, in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (6th Nov. 2025) The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025) The Brazilian central bank’s hawkish statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate at 15.00% all but ends any hope of an interest rate cut before year-end. Our new base case is that the... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026 When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025) When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
