US Rapid Response

US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28)

The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of...

18th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027

The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided...

18th February 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026)

Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long.

18th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and despite the economy falling into recession at the end of last year, we think a return to monetary easing is still...

17th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

13th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 2026)

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by 100bp, to 19.00%, and sounded more confident that inflation will be brought back to target later this year. This reinforces our view...

12th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027

The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re...

11th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026)

The fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate from 12.3% y/y in December to 11.9% y/y in January, its weakest pace since September and second weakest since Q1 2022, means that the Central Bank of Egypt...

10th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI

This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in...

6th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA has more work to do

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week’s 25bp hike with additional policy tightening in the months ahead. Indeed, with growth set to accelerate further above potential this...

6th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 26)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged at 7.00% as expected today, and its communications suggested that this marked a pause, not the end of the easing cycle. But the overall...

5th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB on hold for several more months

While the ECB left rates on hold today and put a positive spin on the outlook for the economy, we think its next move is likely be a rate cut, albeit not until much later in the year.

5th February 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00%

While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced...

5th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected, but a dovish shift seems likely in the post-meeting communications. The risks to our...

5th February 2026 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Feb. 2026)

While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today (as widely expected), the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we expected, which supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced to 3...

5th February 2026 · 3 mins read