Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again in June While the BoJ kept policy settings unchanged today and turned more pessimistic about the outlook for economic activity, policymakers seem more worried about the inflationary consequences of higher... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the April’s weak surveys The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual... 24th April 2026 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to talk tough, but unlikely to deliver We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday 30th April. But with the data over the last month likely to have raised concerns about the risk of second-round inflation... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp The FOMC will leave the fed funds target range at 3.50–3.75% next week, while likely providing a slightly more hawkish policy statement. But assuming Chair Powell doesn’t go rogue at what should be... 23rd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Elevated oil prices to give BoC meeting a hawkish tilt The improved growth backdrop and nascent threat of higher inflation expectations means the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold again but likely take a more hawkish tone at its meeting next week. 22nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (April 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% today as officials’ concerns about the weakness of the rupiah countered its desire to support economic growth. So long as the rupiah doesn’t come... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will wait until June before hiking again While the Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged next week, we suspect it will judge that risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside for now. While that would normally point to a... 20th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will wait until June before tightening policy again Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled this week that a rate hike at the Bank’s April meeting is off the table. While there’s a risk of prolonged inaction, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Mar 17-18) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some”... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ not in a rush to tighten policy While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussed a pre-emptive rate hike at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the drag on economic activity from higher energy prices will... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (April 26) 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
