Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to stand pat amid oil market turmoil The Bank of Canada is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week and will likely play down the risk that higher oil prices might warrant interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, if WTI... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Delayed cuts, cancelled cuts or interest rate hikes? There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most... 12th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will hike rates again in April Provided that crude oil prices don’t rise much further, their recent increase won’t lift inflation to levels that the Bank of Japan would find intolerable. But with underlying inflation holding up... 12th March 2026 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (Feb. 2026) The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate on hold today at 2.50%, and we expect the central bank to maintain this stance until at least mid-year, before eventually restarting its easing cycle around the... 26th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by 25bp today, to 6.25%, will likely be followed by further interest rate cuts over the coming months. We will firm up our new forecast... 24th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 26) The Bank of Israel’s (BoI’s) decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today underscores its commitment to a cautious easing cycle despite softer recent inflation data. We continue to expect... 23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 2026) 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 2026) 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027 The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026) Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long. 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
