BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play The Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates at 3.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 30th July and the latest rebound in energy prices will ensure that it continues to stress that... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on pause but chance of another hike is rising The ECB left interest rates unchanged today and gave nothing away about its intentions for the next meeting in September. Based on our forecast for energy prices to fall significantly in the coming... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2026) The ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged was no surprise, and the press release gives no clear signal about the Bank’s next move. If energy prices drop back in the coming months as we... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Bank Indonesia left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today as we had expected (but in contrast to the consensus) and so long as tensions in the Middle East ease over the coming weeks, we think policy... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s optimism will be put to the test The recent pick-up in crude oil prices vindicates the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation. To be sure, the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could prompt the Bank to flag... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB rates on hold despite higher oil prices It is highly likely that the ECB Governing Council will leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. Although energy prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks, they remain lower than in... 16th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank content to look through energy-driven inflation The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank can afford to be patient Lower oil prices reduce the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at the expense of the economy, which remains fragile despite some recent signs of improvement. We therefore still expect the... 9th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) 9th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2026) As expected, the RBNZ kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today. Its messaging broadly comports with our view that rates will rise gradually to a peak of 3.25% next year. 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike, but it will be a close-run thing We expect the RBNZ to begin its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp hike. With firms’ pricing intentions elevated, the Bank will want to guard against higher near-term inflation becoming embedded... 1st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
