US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17)

The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains "stable" and inflation stays "elevated due to strong AI-related demand", "almost all” participants “indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted”. This lends support to our non-consensus view that the Fed will hike three times in consecutive quarters over the next three quarters, although it is important to note that the minutes are three weeks stale and predate June's soft payrolls report.