Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Holding while others hike Even though the ECB has raised interest rates again and the Fed appears close to a hike, we are not expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday 17th September, or... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message alongside its policy rate announcement today, noting that “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and it is “prepared to adjust monetary... 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Sep. 2026) The RBNZ hiked rates as expected, but tempered expectations for further tightening. 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) opted to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 3.25% at today’s meeting, and with inflation likely to increase over the coming months we think it will opt for a temporary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September ECB hike looks nailed on The rise in natural gas prices in recent weeks, together with the continued strength of the euro-zone economy, mean that a September ECB hike now looks nailed on. Decisions thereafter will depend on... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch New tariff uncertainty supports Bank’s calls to be patient The Bank of Canada will likely highlight the need to balance the worsening growth and inflation prospects brought about by fresh tariffs at next week’s meeting. We therefore still expect the policy... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2026) 27th August 2026 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will press ahead with a return to neutral With inflation still far too high for the RBNZ’s comfort and the economy showing signs of life again, we now expect the Bank to hike rates at each of its next two meetings in September and October... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Central Bank of Egypt left its policy rate unchanged at 19.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting today but, so long as oil prices drop back as we anticipate, we think officials will be able to... 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
