Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (July 2025) Although the RBA judged that leaving rates on hold was the more prudent choice at its meeting earlier this month, it did signal that there was more easing in the pipeline. Our sense is that the Bank... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trade data resilient despite difficult negotiations Trade data released this week suggest that exports from the EU and Switzerland have been quite resilient since the US imposed a 10% tariff on most products in April. Meanwhile, despite an increase in... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) & US-Indonesia Trade Deal Bank Indonesia (BI) resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate, to 5.25%, today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 17-18 2025) The minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting show most Fed officials content to wait and see what impact tariffs and other government policies had on inflation and the labour market before committing to... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 16.8% y/y in May to 14.9% y/y in June amid a broad-based easing of price pressures and supports our non-consensus view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2025) While the RBNZ predictably left rates on hold today, it signalled that it was likely to loosen policy further as long as capacity pressures continued to ease. As a result, we’re sticking to our... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (July) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of upcoming... 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will resume easing cycle in August While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s today defied widespread expectations of a rate cut, we still expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle at its August meeting. And with GDP growth still sluggish... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (July 25) 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (July) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back... 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by another 50bp, to 8.00%, at today’s meeting, but the accompanying communications were slightly less dovish and point to a slower pace of... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
