US Fed Watch

Fed to sit tight in October

Although the latest hot inflation readings and rise in inflation expectations will concern Fed officials, they still appear broadly intent on tightening policy at a measured pace. We therefore expect...

22nd October 2026 · 8 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Bank to finally hike with inflation risks too great to ignore

The shift in the Bank of Canada’s language towards emphasising inflation risks from higher oil prices and downplaying the growth impact of new tariffs suggests a 25bp hike, to 2.50%, is finally on the...

22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Philippines Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026)

22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end

We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final...

22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026)

The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept interest rates on hold at 3.25% as expected today and we think it will adopt a more cautious stance towards further easing going forward. This points to perhaps one more...

21st October 2026 · 2 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB will hike only once more

The latest evidence suggests that the euro-zone economy remains fairly resilient in the face of the Iran war and that, despite elevated energy prices, underlying price and wage pressures have not...

21st October 2026 · 7 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026)

The policy moves by Bank Indonesia today suggest that officials are struggling to work out whether to prioritise supporting the rupiah or boost growth. These mixed messages risk undermining the...

21st October 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Sep. 2026)

While the Board continued to strike a hawkish tone in September, we’re sticking to our view that the cash rate has already peaked.

13th October 2026 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most...

7th October 2026 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026)

The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the...

7th October 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike

The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong...

2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read

RBI Watch

RBI poised to kick off hiking cycle

The consensus has come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of the upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 7th October. After...

30th September 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike

The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the...

29th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2026)

The RBA hiked rates as expected, but it left the door ajar for further tightening in the months ahead. While we continue to believe that the cash rate has now peaked, risks to this view are growing.

29th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged again today, at 6.50%, and the communications suggest that Banxico is likely to remain on hold. But we think the balance of factors will...

24th September 2026 · 2 mins read