Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will resume easing cycle in August While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s today defied widespread expectations of a rate cut, we still expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle at its August meeting. And with GDP growth still sluggish... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (July 25) 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (July) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back... 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by another 50bp, to 8.00%, at today’s meeting, but the accompanying communications were slightly less dovish and point to a slower pace of... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (June) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June) 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England may eventually cut rates below 3.50% The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Jun. 2025) The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2025) Brazil’s central bank opted, as we had expected, for a 25bp hike in the Selic today to 15.00% and, while the tightening cycle is probably now over, Copom went out of its way to push back against any... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains on sidelines amid heightened uncertainty The Fed will remain on the sidelines for some time, waiting to see what impact tariffs will have on price inflation. We suspect that lingering fears of a more persistent impact will persuade the Fed... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2025) The Fed’s new interest rate projections still just about show a median of 50bp of cuts to its policy rate for this year, but it was very close. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates before year-end The Bank of Japan decided to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace from next year and retained its pessimistic outlook for the economy. However, we expect that mounting upside risks to the Bank’s... 17th June 2025 · 3 mins read
