Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs Financial risks remain low in the emerging world. However, since our last Financial Risks Monitor, currency vulnerabilities have increased in a handful of countries. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China trade tensions: the supply chain impact on EMs The US tariffs on China announced last week will, if implemented, have knock on effects on other EMs though supply chains, particularly in parts of East Asia and in Chile. The impact of the measures... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in CEE inflation? The recent drop in inflation across Central Europe has caught ourselves and most other analysts off-guard. But a closer look into the data suggests that the weakness of inflation has been due largely... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Protectionist clouds gather As long as they aren’t followed by far more extensive trade sanctions than have been seen to date, the protectionist clouds looming over the global economy are unlikely to have a major bearing on... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Better news at the start of Q1 Having slowed over the final quarter of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth nudged up for the first time in five months in January. 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped in most countries this month but still suggest that GDP growth in the region has remained strong at around 5% y/y in Q1. That... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth stays strong in Q1 The latest activity figures suggest that Emerging Europe’s strong economic performance continued in the early months of this year. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the second half... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies come under pressure Most major Emerging Market currencies have fared well over the past month even as concerns of a global trade war have mounted, but a number of those in Frontier Markets have struggled. Indeed, only... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs in a world of rising bond yields The EMs with the largest debt burdens are (unsurprisingly) most vulnerable to a spike in global borrowing costs. However, interest rates are only one of several components that determine debt... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks still not following the Fed The Fed is likely to raise interest rates once again this week but, from the perspective of EMs, the most striking thing remains how few central banks have followed in the Fed’s footsteps. As our... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
