Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A regional slowdown The past few months have brought early signs that growth has peaked in parts of Emerging Europe, and we expect the pace of expansion to ease in most countries over the course of this year and 2019. In... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EU’s next budget and what it means for CEE The EU’s draft budget for 2021-27 released today only provided headline details but, as a rough estimate, we think that annual structural fund inflows for each of the Central and Eastern European (CEE... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, supporting our view that regional growth has now peaked. The PMI dropped particularly sharply in Turkey, suggesting that a fairly... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but is still consistent with strong GDP growth. The fall in the ESIs was... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth softens in Q1 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the emerging world eased over Q1, which seems to have been driven by weaker activity in EM industry. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble and lira sway next week’s rate decisions? The latest moves in the Russian and Turkish currencies mean interest rate decisions due in both countries next week are on a knife edge. On balance, we think the Turkish central bank will raise its... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
